Bloomberg news agency wrote the main reason behind this withdrawal by the Iranian regime is the high casualties their forces have suffered in the past two months.
Robert Ford, former U.S. ambassador to Syria said the major economic damages the Iranian regime has suffered were amongst the reasons that forced this regime to pull out of Syria.
Military and strategic experts believe the main element behind the IRGC’s retreat from Syria is the damages the Iranian regime has suffered, especially in the south Aleppo and northern Hama Province theaters. The Iranian regime has lost 80 of its officers and commanders in the past two months, statistics show. Topping this list is the death of Hossein Hamedani, the main IRGC coordinator in Syria, and Quds Force chief Qassem Suleimani being severely wounded.
In the past month Qassem Suleimani, one of the members of Iranian regime leader Ali Khamenei’s inner circle, was injured in Syria. He had committed to not allow the Bashar Assad regime fall and played the role of the main coordinator in the bilateral party of occupiers in Syria, being Russia and the Iranian regime.
Ali Saeedi, Khamenei’s representative in the IRGC, had from the first half of December made remarks revealing Qassem Suleimani getting wounded and Hamedani’s death were backbreaking blows to the IRGC, and finding commanders like them would be nearly impossible. On the other hand, on a campaign dubbed “Operation Moharram” aimed at taking over Aleppo he said this operation is very critical for the Iranian regime and although they have suffered many casualties they have to finish it at all costs.
On December 12th IRGC chief Mohammad Ali Jafari called for borders between Iraq, Lebanon and Syria to be lifted. The reason behind the presence of Iranian military forces in Syria is to maintain Iran’s security, he said. Jafari said the war in Syria will determine the future of Islam and the entire world.
This is the paradox that the Iranian regime is engulfed in. On one hand they consider their presence in Syria as the guarantor of their own survival. On the other hand, due to the heavy casualties they have suffered in the highest commanding ranks they no longer have the ability to continue this war.
Another element behind the regime’s withdrawal from Syria is the massive economic loss Tehran has suffered, skyrocketing into dozens of billions, in order to maintain Assad in power.
Russia and the Iranian regime sought to share the cake in Syria. However, the conditions on the ground were not apt to the Iranian regime’s demands. After suffering heavy losses and seeing the carpet pulled from beneath its feat, Tehran sensed its position in Syria is in danger especially after the casualties they suffered amongst senior IRGC commanders. As a result, the Iranian regime resorted to a tactic in the Syrian war and began pulling out its IRGC forces, and at the same time imposed changes in the IRGC to replace their losses. This included the fact that Gheib-Parvar of the IRGC has replaced Hossein Hamedani.
Another important subject is that IRGC forces have come to realize they are dying in a war that is not theirs, and the Iranian people know quite well that the Iranian regime’s interference in Syria is nothing but meddling in the internal affairs of other countries.
Currently the Iranian regime’s has 7,000 IRGC members in Syria, alongside Lebanese Hezbollah members, Iraqi militias and mercenaries hired by the IRGC from Afghanistan and Pakistan who fight for money in Syria.
In my opinion as IRGC chief Jafari has said, the war in Syria will determine the future of the Iranian regime. Following the paradox the Iranian regime has been engulfed in, its export of terrorism will backfire and it will be overthrown by the Iranian people.